Updated: Jan 18
Will Donald be 100 percent?
I gave myself a 5-7 record for the Wild Card round, but went by the final point spreads and over/unders and not what they were at press time. In the Colts/Bills game I had under at 51.5, which became 50.5 at game time - turning a win into a loss. The Tampa Bay spread against Washington went from -8 to -10 on game day, turning a push into a loss in my prediction. So it was 5-7, but was really 6-5-1:) So now for the last eight teams standing.
LA Rams +7 @ Green Bay (o/u 45) - If not now, then when for the Packers for the Aaron Rodgers era. The Packers hold the No. 1 seed with only 'warm-weather' teams Los Angeles, New Orleans and Tampa Bay still standing. The GBP has been incredible under Matt Lafleur with a 26-6 regular season record and one playoff win. But home-field is not a guarantee, Dallas almost won the 1967 Ice Bowl, Michael Vick ran wild in the snow in 2002, the Giants have derailed Green Bay at Lambeau twice. That said, I see too many question marks with LA, Jared Goff is iffy and his two previous cold-weather starts (@Denver and @Chicago in 2018) were shaky. The fitness level of Aaron Donald is the true million dollar question. The matchup between Donald and Green Bay's O-line obviously plays a huge factor in determining the outcome. I don't see a Packers loss this week. The pick: Green Bay (win), take the over (win) Baltimore +2.5 @ Buffalo (o/u 49.5) - So it is said that Miami-native Lamar Jackson has 'zero experience' playing in the snow. The latest forecast calls for temps in the 30s and a dusting at worst. Either team winning would not surprise, I have the Ravens being the one road team to advance this week. The pick: Baltimore (loss), take the under (win)
Cleveland +8 @ Kansas City (o/u 56.5) - The Browns play with house money this week, but KC has had an awful record lately against the number. I could see a blowout Chiefs win, but will go with the Browns to at least cover. The over-under is high but remember Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes lit it up against each other in their Big XII days. The pick: Cleveland (win), take the under (win)
Tampa Bay +2.5 @ New Orleans (o/u 53) - Once, twice, can the Bucs be three times the Saints lady? New Orleans offense still sputtered against Chicago, but the Bucs have a history of slow starts in games, they obviously cannot fall behind multiple scores again. The pick: New Orleans (loss), take the over (loss)
Last week: ATS: 2-4, o/u 3-3, overall 5-7